Is Netflix a safe stock to invest in?
Currently, Netflix has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and a Growth Score of B, a combination that offers the best opportunities in the growth investing space. Its shares have already outperformed the broader S&P 500 in the year-to-date period (+19.8% versus +6.4%).
Fair Value Estimate for Netflix
With its 2-star rating, we believe Netflix's stock is overvalued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $425, which implies a multiple of 25 times our 2024 earnings per share forecast.
So, if you had invested in Netflix ten years ago, you're likely feeling pretty good about your investment today. A $1000 investment made in March 2014 would be worth $9,728.72, or a gain of 872.87%, as of March 4, 2024, according to our calculations. This return excludes dividends but includes price appreciation.
It's been a good run for folks that have been binge investing in Netflix (NFLX -0.38%). The stock has more than doubled since the start of last year. Even in 2024 -- with many of last year's winners proving mortal -- shares of the leading premium video service provider are beating the market, up 26% year to date.
Given that NFLX has a Zacks Rank #3 and an ESP in positive territory, investors might want to consider this stock ahead of earnings. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Netflix Delivers Blockbuster Subscriber Growth In Q1 2024
Revenue grew 14.8% to $9.37 billion, much higher than analyst expectations. The company forecast almost 16% revenue growth for the second quarter to $9.49 billion, just shy of the $9.5 billion forecast by analysts polled by Visible Alpha.
Netflix stock closed down 9.1% on Friday, after the company reported its first quarter earnings on Thursday. The dip followed Netflix's forecast that subscribers will be lower during the second quarter, which the company blamed on “seasonality.”
However, as noted, things have turned south since then. Check out the above chart and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 in NFLX stock 20 years ago – and did not sell at the peak – today you would be sitting on not quite $139,000. That's still a terrific return, of course.
17, according to CNBC's calculations. And if you had invested $1,000 in Netflix a decade ago, it would have ballooned by more than 654% to $7,543 as of Oct. 17, according to CNBC's calculations.
NFLX Stock 12 Month Forecast
Based on 40 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Netflix in the last 3 months. The average price target is $598.98 with a high forecast of $725.00 and a low forecast of $375.00. The average price target represents a -1.37% change from the last price of $607.33.
Is Netflix stock Overvalued?
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock is overvalued. That's the opinion of analysts at Benchmark, who maintained a Sell rating and $440 price target on the streaming giant's shares in a note Thursday, heading into the company's earnings release.
Year | Prediction | Change |
---|---|---|
2025 | $ 720.34 | 29.78% |
2026 | $ 934.87 | 68.43% |
2027 | $ 1,213.29 | 118.60% |
2028 | $ 1,574.63 | 183.70% |
- The all-time high Netflix stock closing price was 691.69 on November 17, 2021.
- The Netflix 52-week high stock price is 639.00, which is 15.1% above the current share price.
- The Netflix 52-week low stock price is 315.62, which is 43.1% below the current share price.
The top shareholders of Netflix are Leslie J. Kilgore, David Hyman, Greg Peters, Capital Research Group Investors, Vanguard Group Inc., and BlackRock Inc. (BLK).
The stock's total value must multiply by nearly 5 before reaching a $1 trillion market cap -- an ambitious goal that calls for time and patience. A more reasonable, yet consistently market-beating, estimate suggests Netflix could reach a $564 million market cap by 2030 and $1 trillion in 2035.
Stock Price Forecast
The 32 analysts with 12-month price forecasts for Netflix stock have an average target of 573.75, with a low estimate of 333 and a high estimate of 765. The average target predicts a decrease of -7.19% from the current stock price of 618.19.
The company reported revenues of $8.83 billion during the quarter, up 12% year over year.
While he believes Netflix's 2025 subscriber growth will slow as its paid-sharing initiative runs its course, “we still see a long runway for subscriber/ARPU growth going forward.” The analyst reiterated his $800/share price target on Netflix stock.
Netflix shares were sharply higher in pre-market trading Wednesday after the streaming giant said it added 13.1 million subscribers in the fourth quarter, well ahead of Wall Street's consensus view. The company plans to increase its programming slate and tap into new areas, such as advertising and gaming.
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How much was Netflix stock when it first came out?
On May 23, 2002, Netflix's stock began trading on the Nasdaq. Its stock was first sold at an initial public offering (IPO) price of $15 per share.
1999: Netflix announces its new subscription model. Introduced at an initial price point of $15.95, the subscription plan allows Netflix members to rent up to four movies at a time, with no return-by dates.
The good news is Netflix doesn't have much debt coming due over the next few years. The company has done a good job spreading out maturities, which will prevent any sort of sudden shock. Chart by author. Data source: Netflix 10-K.
Netflix. In 2008, Netflix was on the brink of its streaming evolution, coinciding with the economic downturn. Responding to the decline of video rental stores, Netflix introduced streaming as a cost-effective entertainment solution.
Holder | Shares | Date Reported |
---|---|---|
Capital World Investors | 11.74M | Dec 31, 2023 |
JP Morgan Chase & Company | 9.29M | Dec 31, 2023 |
Capital International Investors | 8.89M | Dec 31, 2023 |
Geode Capital Management, LLC | 8.63M | Dec 31, 2023 |
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