Free MLB Picks & Predictions - Today's Best Expert MLB Bets (2024)

Trevor Rogers is set to take the mound for the Orioles in this matchup, and I don't like his chances of leading his team to a win over the Nats. Rogers has a brutal 1.56 WHIP, and Washington has good enough hitting to bring in runners. The Nationals also have the second-most stolen bases in MLB, setting them up to knock in RISP. Jake Irvin will do enough help keep his team in front.

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Kyle LaRusic - Pick Made 21 hrs, 20 min ago.

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The Cubs rank 15th with a 22.1 K% against southpaws for the year, and they also have an overall 21% mark in August, which is 10th lowest in the majors. Additionally, Chicago has been more dangerous against lefties all season, and they’re sporting a fourth-ranked .346 wOBA for the month. Boyd is making his 2024 MLB debut following Tommy John surgery, and he only threw 63 pitches in his final tune-up with Triple-A Columbus last time out. I'm not anticipating him topping 80 pitches Tuesday, so his window to rack up strikeouts will be partially closed before he even toes the rubber.

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Neil Parker - Pick Made 6 hrs, 7 min ago.

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Javier Assad was pitching well in his last start but was pulled after 12 outs and 75 pitches. He has not pitched into the fifth inning in back-to-back starts and might be getting scaled back. His Under 15.5 outs is great at -155 as some books are at 14.5. Getting four punchouts vs. the Guardians on a short leash is going to be tough on the road. Over his last six starts, he has just 11 Ks across 24 total innings. He could be faltering down the stretch as the season drags on while battling some knicks and bruises this year. The market is moving to the Under on all his props as the volume might not be there.

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Josh Inglis - Pick Made 5 hrs, 59 min ago.

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Over his last five starts, Tarik Skubal has given up four homers, and his ERA is a much more human 3.24. Meanwhile, George Kirby has lasted a total of just 10 1/3 innings in his last two appearances, allowing five runs on 14 hits over that stretch. It’s not as though either of these pitchers is in line to be rocked by the opposition, but we do need to keep things in perspective. Kirby and Skubal faced off just six days ago, and the result was a 6-2 win for Detroit. That’s about the average result we can expect from these two teams and pitchers, who both frequently play in games with totals of eight runs or more.The consensus total is now up to a flat seven, but with a premium on the Over, that number is still far too low not to jump on.

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Ed Scimia - Pick Made 3 hrs, 26 min ago.

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De La Cruz is slashing .266/.350/.499 while ranking 16th in the majors with 227 total bases through 117 games. The newly minted All-Star has been on fire over the last month, slashing .323/.380/.616. The switch-hitting De La Cruz also hits better against righties, slugging .572, and will be facing Cardinals righthander Erick Fedde today. Fedde is putting together a solid season, but his expected ERA (3.87) isn't great and he has struggled for most of his career. Fedde relies primarily on a cutter, sinker, and sweeper that he throws a combined 82% of the time. De La Cruz crushes those offerings, slugging .593 versus sinkers while batting .370 against cutters and .333 off sweepers.

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Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 1 hrs, 49 min ago.

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Kikuchi has been great for the Astros over two starts but he's coming off a 113-pitch outing which was a season high and 14 more pitches above his average pitch count across his previous 10 starts. Kikuchi has not fared well in the games following a heavy workload and has gone more than 14 outs just once in five starts following a game of 97 or more pitches. He also has allowed 20 earned runs over those 24 total innings. He should be scaled back today but I think we see more of the bad Kikuchi today vs. a Tampa lineup that is very familiar with the lefty. He has also allowed at least two earned runs in 10 straight starts.

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Josh Inglis - Pick Made 7 hrs, 34 min ago.

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Crawford has been awful of late giving up 13 home runs over his last four starts including four vs. Texas just two starts ago. He's failed to record more than 16 outs over that stretch and gets a home start at Fenway which is not a great setting to suppress runs. He has allowed 22 runs over his 18+ innings since the All-Star break where half of all of his hits allowed have left the yard. If you're looking to fade a struggling pitcher, Crawford is your guy today and his Under 17.5 outs is also a great play to -130.

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Josh Inglis - Pick Made 6 hrs, 24 min ago.

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These teams clashed earlier this month with the same pitcher duel and combined for 17 runs. There's no reason to expect anything different this time around with this game taking place at hitter-friendly Fenway. Urena has pitched to a 4.97 ERA with an OBA of .304 in 38 innings on the road and he'll face a Boston lineup that's been on fire since the All-Star break batting .282 with an OPS of .846. Meanwhile, the Rangers have been the second-unluckiest offense in the majors according to THE BAT X which indicates positive regression in their future. They'll feast on Crawford who has a 5.65 ERA while letting opponents slug .537 over his last 13 starts.

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Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 3 hrs, 28 min ago.

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Witt leads the majors in batting average (.347) while ranking third in doubles (33), second in triples (11), and 19th in home runs (23). He's been even better since the start of July, slashing .439/.476/.803 through 33 games. Today, Witt and the Royals face the Twinsat Target Field, which is the No. 6-ranked stadium for boosting offensive stats, according to THE BAT X. Due to injuries, Minnesota has called up righthander Zebby Matthews for his MLB debu but he was shaky at Triple-A, pitching to a 5.68 ERA across four starts. Witt has excellent reverse platoon splits, slugging .621 against righties and the Twins are a poor fielding team which should help him eclipse 1.5 total bases.

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Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 1 hrs, 46 min ago.

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Brewers righty Colin Rea has a 3.38 ERA and an OBA of .238 through 122 1/3 innings. However, the 34-year-old has significantly worse xERA (4.75) and xBA (.271), numbers that are more in line with his career stats. That suggests regression is incoming, which could happen in a big way tonight against a hard-hitting Dodgers squad. Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez is slashing .272/.336/.507 while ranking 13th in the majors in RBI (79). With Hernandez batting cleanup in the lineup behind perennial All-Stars Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, bet on him to drive in a run tonight. This is a five-star play from THE BAT X which projects 0.7 RBIs for Hernandez.

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Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 1 hrs, 41 min ago.

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Scoring for MLB teams comes in waves, and the Milwaukee Brewers have fallen victim to that as of late. After scoring a whopping 42 runs in four games, the Brewers have now just managed to score just six in their last three.Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers have managed to score four or more runs in seven of their last nine games, and they have gone 7-2 during that time as result.Milwaukee is hoping that Colin Rea can help limit the hot bats of Los Angeles, but he is incredibly unspectacular when you look at the advanced metrics.Rea's expected ERA is 19th percentile, and his expected batting average is 16th percentile. His fastball velocity is bad (27th percentile), and he gets hit hard (13th percentile average exit velocity) to boot.

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Shawn Wronka - Pick Made 1 hrs, 49 min ago.

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Rhys Hoskins is swinging a hot bat over the last 7 days, batting .304 with an .863 OPS. That might not seem particularly special, but for a career .240 hitter, it definitely stands out that he is seeing the ball well right now. Hoskins will be facing Los Angeles Dodgers right-handed pitcher Gavin Stone, against whom right-handed batters have shown more power, with a .437 slugging percentage compared to a .385 slugging percentage by left-handed batters. This bodes well for Hoskins, who has launched 15 of his 20 home runs this season against right-handed pitchers. Not only do the splits align, but this is definitely a number we should be targeting with Hoskins, as projections indicate this prop should be trading closer to +350.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 4 hrs, 6 min ago.

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Kevin Gausmanbrings a 4.42 ERA into this contest, and he’s allowed three or more runs in three of his last four starts. The Toronto veteran hasn’t looked quite at his best in 2024, with right handers batting .256 against him.Even with some uneven performances to be expected from a largely inexperiencedBlue Jayslineup, the threat ofVladimir Guerrero Jr.looms large, with Vladdy serving up two hits last night. I see both offenses having some joy at Angel Stadium and keeping the scoreboard ticking over.

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Tom Oldfield - Pick Made 2 hrs, 6 min ago.

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It's Dinger Tuesday, and we have a massive rogue price alert for San Francisco shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald. FanDuel is offering Fitzgerald at +870 to hit a home run against the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday, while several other sportsbooks are closer to +700, with some even as low as +600. Not only do we have a rogue price, but Braves starting pitcher Charlie Morton served up four home runs in his last outing against the Milwaukee Brewers, and the wind is blowing out to center field at 10.3 mph at Oracle Park on Tuesday. Projections indicate a significant probability gap for this price, as they suggest this prop should be trading closer to +450.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 4 hrs, 38 min ago.

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